SoFi Earnings: Revenue Growth Slows on Lower Loan Growth and Higher Credit Costs (2024)

We see SoFi stock as significantly undervalued.

SoFi Earnings: Revenue Growth Slows on Lower Loan Growth and Higher Credit Costs (1)

Michael Miller, CFA

SoFi Earnings: Revenue Growth Slows on Lower Loan Growth and Higher Credit Costs (2)

Securities In This Article

SoFi Technologies Inc Ordinary Shares (SOFI)

Key Morningstar Metrics for SoFi Technologies

  • Fair Value Estimate: $13.00
  • Morningstar Rating: 4 stars
  • Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High

What We Thought of SoFi Technologies’ Earnings

SoFi Technologies SOFI reported first-quarter earnings roughly in line with our expectations, though the firm did see slower growth amid its more conservative approach to the lending segment. Adjusted net revenue increased 26.2% from last year but declined 2.2% from last quarter to $580.6 million. Meanwhile, earnings per share increased to $0.08 from a loss of $0.05 last year, though this includes a one-time $59 million gain on extinguishment of debt, without which the 2024 earnings per share would have been only $0.02. As we incorporate these results, we do not plan to materially alter our fair value estimate of $13 per share. We see the stock as significantly undervalued.

Net interest income from SoFi’s lending and financial services segment was still the largest driver of growth, increasing 70.6% from last year, though only 3.4% sequentially, to $402.7 million. The rapid year-over-year increase was from strong loan growth and net interest margin increasing to 5.91% from 5.48% last year. This was primarily the result of SoFi’s improving funding structure, with deposits now making up 82.4% of total funding, up from 61.2% last year.

On the other hand, SoFi’s average loan balances increased 56.8% from last year to $23.5 billion, though the sequential growth rate was much lower at 5.4%. In the face of rising credit costs and interest rate uncertainty, SoFi has decided to take a more conservative approach to its balance sheet in 2024, leading to flat origination volume from last quarter and around $1.9 billion in loan sales. We see the merit in this approach as SoFi’s balance sheet could not maintain the kind of loan growth seen in 2023 and 2022 for much longer, but this will lead to lower growth in 2024. The firm is guiding for a 5%-8% drop in revenue from its lending business, which seems likely, given the results of the first quarter.

SoFi Stock vs. Morningstar Fair Value Estimate

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SoFi Earnings: Revenue Growth Slows on Lower Loan Growth and Higher Credit Costs (6)

Michael Miller

Equity Analyst

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Michael Miller, CFA, is an equity analyst for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He covers credit card issuers, financial exchanges, and financial-services firms.

Before joining Morningstar in 2020, Miller spent two years at a New York-based investment firm, conducting convertible-bond and asset-class research for the company's risk-management team.

Miller holds a bachelor's degree in economics from Northwestern University's Weinberg College. He also holds a Master of Business Administration from the New York University Stern School of Business.

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SoFi Earnings: Revenue Growth Slows on Lower Loan Growth and Higher Credit Costs (2024)

FAQs

What is the revenue growth of SoFi Technologies? ›

Technology Platform segment net revenue of $94.4 million for the first quarter of 2024 increased 21% year-over-year, versus 13% reported last quarter, inline with our guidance for accelerating growth. Contribution profit of $30.7 million for the first quarter of 2024 increased 107% year-over-year, for a margin of 33%.

Why is SoFi down after earnings? ›

The stock is off more than 10% in Monday morning action, after the company beat expectations with its latest financials but came up shy with its second-quarter forecast. This would be the stock's steepest post-earnings decline in a year if losses hold; SoFi shares have gained following each of the prior three reports.

What is the EPS growth rate of SoFi? ›

SoFi Technologies is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 52.2% and 13.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 55.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 7.7% in 3 years.

What are SoFi earnings projections? ›

SOFI Financial Forecast

Next quarter's earnings estimate for SOFI is <$0.01 with a range of -$0.01 to $0.02. The previous quarter's EPS was $0.02. SOFI beat its EPS estimate 75.00% of the time in the past 12 months, while its overall industry beat the EPS estimate 60.87% of the time in the same period.

Is SoFi financially stable? ›

Investment risk

SoFi has liabilities of $24.5 billion, of which $8 billion are deposits from clients. While the total assets are $30 billion, the equity comes to $5 billion, and that already includes a cash position of $3 billion as of the end of 2023 for some financial cushion.

What is special about SoFi? ›

SoFi is a different kind of finance company whose goal is to help people get their money right. Our products are built around our members—so that they have the tools they need to take control of their financial futures.

Why is SoFi tanking? ›

Sofi Technologies gave lower-than-expected current quarter guidance as it sees 2024 as a "transitional year." The fintech firm will rely more on profits from its Tech and Financial Services platforms and less on lending. The news offset solid profit and sales in the first quarter, and a higher full-year outlook.

Why is SoFi falling? ›

SoFi rides surge in home-loan originations to a profit beat, but its stock falls. SoFi Technologies Inc. on Monday reported a profit beat for the latest quarter while boosting its full-year outlook, but shares were falling after the company came up short with its outlook for the current quarter.

What are the drawbacks to SoFi? ›

Cons No branches: As an online-only bank, SoFi doesn't provide in-person banking access. No out-of-network ATM reimbursem*nts: Unlike some online banks, SoFi doesn't reimburse ATM fees for out-of-network ATMs.

What is a good EPS growth rate? ›

EPS growth shows how rapidly a company has been able to boost its "bottom line" on a per-share basis. Growth investors might look for companies with EPS growth of, say, 20% or more.

Is high EPS growth good? ›

In general, higher EPS is better but one has to consider the number of shares outstanding, the potential for share dilution, and earnings trends over time. If a company misses or beats analysts' consensus expectations for EPS, its shares can either crash or rally, respectively.

What is a good EPS growth percentage? ›

Simply divide a company's net income by its number of shares outstanding. But to find top growth stocks, seek outstanding profit performance. Specifially, stocks with EPS growth rates of at least 25% compared with year-ago levels suggest a company has products or services in strong demand.

What are earnings projections? ›

Earnings forecasts are based on analysts' expectations of company growth and profitability. To predict earnings, most analysts build financial models that estimate prospective revenues and costs.

Where does SoFi invest their money? ›

We invest in carefully crafted ETFs to reduce risk. SoFi Invest provides you complimentary access to our financial advisors. When the markets fluctuate and change, we will rebalance your portfolio to align with your investment goals.

What is the volatility of SoFi? ›

SOFI IV Percentile Rank

SOFI implied volatility (IV) is 43.9, which is in the 2% percentile rank.

What is SoFi revenue in 2024? ›

SoFi Technologies Reports Q1 2024 Net Revenue of $645 Million and Net Income of $88 Million, Marking Second Consecutive Quarter of GAAP Profitability.

Is SoFi in debt? ›

This was primarily the result of SoFi's improving funding structure, with deposits now making up 82.4% of total funding, up from 61.2% last year. On the other hand, SoFi's average loan balances increased 56.8% from last year to $23.5 billion, though the sequential growth rate was much lower at 5.4%.

What is the financial strength of SoFi? ›

SoFi Technologies has the Financial Strength Rank of 4.

The debt burden that the company has as measured by its Interest Coverage (current year).

What is the prediction for SoFi in 2025? ›

SoFi Technologies, Inc. stock forecast for 2025: $ 8.08 (14.07%)

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