The Bears’ offense looks vastly different this year compared to 2023, and that should have major fantasy football ramifications.
Having a new quarterback is obviously the biggest roster change that Chicago made this offseason. However, when you factor in a new starting running back and two new starting wide receivers, it should be even more interested to see how this star-studded unit gels.
On paper, the Bears could have one of the best skill position groups in the NFL, especially if Caleb Williams succeeds as a rookie. That said, it remains to be seen exactly how the competition for touches in their offense will play out. This makes the players’ fantasy football outlooks that much more interesting.
Using ESPN’s most recent PPR top 300 rankings, I decided to go through each Bears player listed and determine whether I think they should be rated higher or lower from where they currently are.
DJ Moore: WR20, No. 41 overall
In his debut season with the Bears, Moore was 13th in receptions, sixth in receiving yards and tied for eighth in receiving touchdowns. His stellar performance saw him finish as the WR6 in fantasy, a ranking helped by the fact that he didn’t miss a single game.
Moore faces stiffer competition for touches at the wide receiver position this year, compared to having Darnell Mooney as WR2 and Tyler Scott as WR3. That might make it tough for him to finish as a top-6 fantasy receiver like he did last year, but WR20 is an overreaction, especially with the likes of Drake London and Deebo Samuel ahead of him. He also finds himself in a new Bears offense, compared to last year’s unit that finished with the fifth-fewest passing attempts in the NFL. A slight regression should be expected, but I’d still consider Moore a top-15 fantasy wide receiver.
Verdict: Buy
Keenan Allen: WR29, No. 55 overall
A little bit farther down the list from Moore is Allen, who is coming off a season with 1,243 receiving yards, 7 receiving touchdowns, and a career-high 108 catches in just 13 games. After spending 11 seasons with the Chargers, he now finds himself in the Windy City.
Like Moore, Allen finds himself with a tougher battle for touches compared to his fellow receivers in Los Angeles last year. He’s in a new environment, and he also turned 32 years old, making him a risk for potential regression. Having missed 11 games in the last two years affects his fantasy value, too. However, Allen finds himself ranked as ESPN’s seventh-best WR who isn’t the primary option for his team, which is a ranking I personally find hard to believe. He’s such a consistent route runner and a sure-handed weapon who should prove to be an easy security blanket in Caleb Williams’ rookie year. I’d rank him in the WR20-24 range and would consider him a steal outside the first 50 picks.
Verdict: Buy
D’Andre Swift: RB21, No. 71 overall
Swift had a career year with the Eagles in 2023, rushing for 1,049 yards and 5 touchdowns en route to his first Pro Bowl appearance. He’s cashing in on that now with the Bears, where he figures to be the primary back in their backfield.
There’s a pretty big drop between RB17 and RB18 on ESPN’s board, as there are a whopping 32 spots between the two. Swift finds himself a few spots behind at RB21. Given the fact that Ryan Poles spent a considerable amount for him by running back standards, I would imagine Swift will get the lion’s share of carries in Chicago’s backfield. Another 1,000-yard rushing season is certainly reasonable for him if he stays healthy, but it’s tough to imagine him matching some of the high-volume receiving numbers he put up with the Lions. He finished as fantasy’s RB24 in 2023, and while I think he’s a high-end RB3 like this ranking indicates, I wouldn’t rely heavily on him to be your fantasy RB2 with how crowded the Bears’ passing attack looks to be.
Verdict: Sell
Rome Odunze: WR46, No. 105 overall
Odunze enters the NFL as the No. 9 pick in the 2024 draft, giving the Bears another talented weapon to add to their passing attack. He dominated in college at Washington, and Chicago clearly viewed him highly enough to warrant using a top-10 selection on him.
Last year’s WR46 was Darius Slayton, who had 50 catches for 770 yards and 4 touchdowns. That seems like a reasonable enough statline for Odunze. This ranking seems about right, so if you find yourself looking for wide receiver depth in later rounds of your fantasy draft, Odunze carries plenty of upside just because he’s a young receiver with an incredible skill set. His size and ball skills give him additional upside in red-zone situations, as well. That’s worth taking a flyer on late.
Verdict: Buy
Caleb Williams: QB16, No. 113 overall
After an accomplished collegiate career which saw him a Heisman Trophy winner and a unanimous All-American, Williams ended up with the Bears as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
While I do think Williams is an incredibly talented quarterback with good dual-threat ability and a loaded group of weapons, I still expect there to be some sort of growing pains for him as a rookie. The Bears have yet to have a 4,000-yard passer in their franchise history, and while I believe Williams will eventually be that guy, I’m not sold it will be right away in Year 1. He’s certainly worth taking a shot on late, but the margin of error for rookie QBs is pretty large in fantasy football.
Verdict: Sell
Cole Kmet: TE16, No. 134 overall
Kmet has found his fantasy value ascending over the course of his previous four seasons in the NFL. He finished as fantasy football’s TE8 last year, ending the season with 73 catches for 719 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Predicting a drop all the way to TE16 anticipates that the additions of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze will eat into Kmet’s workload. He also has Gerald Everett pairing up with him at tight end, and one can assume Everett will play a role in Chicago’s offense. It’s certainly reasonable to expect Kmet’s numbers to drop a bit in 2024, but he’s still an above-average starter at the tight end position. He’s a sure-handed pass-catcher who knows how to work himself open against zone coverage, and with a rookie quarterback, that’s a valuable trait to have.
Verdict: Buy
Cairo Santos: K10, No. 160 overall
In 2023, Santos made 35 of his 38 field goal attempts for a 92.1% percentage. He also hit 31 of his 33 PAT tries, and that performance tied him for second place among all fantasy football kickers.
Santos has made over 90% of his field goal attempts in three of his last four seasons with the Bears. There’s been some instability with how many attempts he gets each year, but he tied for the third-most field goal attempts in the NFL last year. There’s reason to believe the Bears will score more touchdowns in 2024, which would convert some of his fantasy-friendly field goals into extra points. That said, more effective offensive drives should still lead to a high amount of field goal chances. Consider Santos a rock-solid starting kicker for your fantasy team whom you don’t have to worth about missed field goals often with.
Verdict: Buy
Khalil Herbert: RB55, No. 171 overall
Herbert has been a staple in the Bears’ backfield for the last three years, topping 100 carries in each season he’s played in the NFL. 2023 saw him finish with a career-year 9 starts, but his rushing yards, touchdowns and yards-per-carry all dropped from the year before.
With D’Andre Swift now the starter at running back for the Bears, Herbert might not see as high of a volume as he did when healthy as their starter last year. He’s never really been known as a high-end receiving back, either. That said, he’s still an explosive runner who’s too good to not be involved in Chicago’s running game. If Swift were to go down with an injury, Herbert would be the lead guy. He had three weeks of top-11 fantasy finishes in 2023, and having a running back like that stashed on your team could be the difference between a win and a loss on a given week.
Verdict: Buy
Roschon Johnson: RB58, No. 195 overall
As a rookie in 2023, Johnson had 352 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground with 4.3 yards per carry. Most of his value for the Bears came on passing downs, where he served as a steady pass-blocking running back and caught 34 passes, giving him the third-highest reception total the team had all year.
Herbert is still ahead of Johnson in the Bears’ backfield, and Swift is an upgrade over D’Onta Foreman. With that in mind, it could be difficult for Johnson to see much of an uptick in production in 2024, barring injury around him at the running back position. RB58 isn’t a bad ranking for Johnson at all, and I think he does carry decent value in deep leagues as a backup. That said, I probably wouldn’t use a fantasy pick on him this year. If the time comes for you to add him, the waiver wire is probably your best bet.
Verdict: Sell
Bears D/ST: DST13, No. 235 overall
As a defense, the Bears had the second-fewest sacks in the NFL in 2023. However, they tied for the most forced interceptions at 22, and they finished in the top half of the league in fewest total yards allowed.
I’m not a huge fan of drafting backup D/ST units; I typically prefer going to the waiver wire whenever my starting defense has a bye week. If you don’t have any Bears players on your fantasy roster but still want to represent your favorite team, there are worse things you can do than drafting Chicago’s D/ST in the last round or two of your draft.
Verdict: Buy
