Investing in commodities has become nightmarishly difficult (2024)

Only a few years ago, analysts and investors were aflutter with talk of a new “supercycle” in commodities. Some believed the world was about to repeat a surge in raw-material prices that began in the early 2000s, and lasted until the global financial crisis of 2007-09. This time the prompt was meant to be a mixture of a fast economic recovery, as the West emerged from covid-19 lockdowns, combined with a shift to green energy.

Today the thesis looks far less certain. Prices of lithium and nickel, which are vital for electric-vehicle (EV) batteries, exploded in 2021 and 2022, but have since collapsed. Nickel is almost 50% cheaper than at the start of 2023. Lithium’s fall has been even steeper: its price is down by more than 80% over the same period. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, made up of a basket of foodstuffs, fuels and metals, has declined by 29% since its peak in mid-2022.

This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Green haze”

Investing in commodities has become nightmarishly difficult (1)

From the February 17th 2024 edition

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Investing in commodities has become nightmarishly difficult (2024)

FAQs

Why is investing in commodities so risky? ›

Uncontrollable factors such as inflation, weather, political unrest, foreign events, new technologies and even rumors can have devastating consequences to the price of a commodity. Investors investing in commodities must be able to bear a total loss of their investment.

Is trading commodities difficult? ›

Commodities are considered risky investments because the supply and demand of these products are affected by events that are difficult to predict, such as weather, epidemics, and natural and human-made disasters.

What happens when you invest in commodities? ›

Key Takeaways. Investing in commodities can provide investors with diversification, a hedge against inflation, and excess positive returns. Investors may experience volatility when their investments track a single commodity or one sector of the economy. Supply, demand, and geopolitics all affect commodity prices.

Is now a good time to invest in commodities? ›

Given that inflation remains stubbornly high in today's environment, “markets today offer a good opportunity to add some commodity exposure,” says Eric Freedman, chief investment officer, U.S. Bank Wealth Management.

What is the problem with commodities? ›

Commodity-dependent countries often grapple with issues like slow productivity, income volatility, overvalued exchange rates, and increased economic and political instability.

What is a problem with commodity money? ›

Commodity money has intrinsic value but risks large price fluctuations based on changing commodity prices. If silver coins are used, for instance, a large discovery of silver may cause the value of the silver currency to plunge, resulting in inflation.

Is it worth it to invest in commodities? ›

Benefits of commodities

This means that when other investments decline, commodities may provide a cushion against losses. Secondly, commodities have the potential to act as a hedge against inflation. As prices rise, the value of commodities often increases, providing a valuable store of wealth.

What are the cons of commodities? ›

The downsides to commodity investing are a lack of income, high volatility, and external risks. Lack of income: Investing in commodities doesn't generate yield income like a bond or a dividend-paying stock.

What is the hardest thing about trading? ›

The most challenging aspect of trading is gaining the qualitative skills. Those that come from experience or time spent in the markets. Being realistic and realising that you are probably just an average trader and that's okay. It's about learning how to keep going even when your account experiences a few losses.

Should I invest in commodities during recession? ›

Commodities don't do well in recessions

By contrast, gold has tended to shine during recessions as investors have reached for their safe-haven status. At the same time, the loosening of monetary policy and lower real interest rates has typically supported gold prices during economic downturns.

What are the top 3 commodities to invest in? ›

You can invest in commodities in a range of ways. Today, the top three in the list of commodities are crude oil, gold and base metals. It is worth taking a look at all three and finding out how to invest.

What commodities to invest in in 2024? ›

What we're watching
  • Gold. Foreign central banks continue to be significant buyers of gold to diversify foreign exchange holdings. ...
  • Oil. Oil demand typically falls as the calendar flips from Q4 into Q1 by 1.5–2.5 million barrels per day for seasonal reasons. ...
  • Copper. ...
  • Platinum and palladium.

Do commodities do well during inflation? ›

Few assets benefit from rising inflation, particularly unexpected inflation, but commodities usually do. As the demand for goods and services increases, the price of goods and services rises as does the price of the commodities used to produce those goods and services.

What is the most valuable commodity time? ›

Our time is our most valuable and precious commodity and cannot be replaced. Quoting the great philosopher, Seneca: “We're tight-fisted with property and money, yet think too little of wasting time, the one thing about which we should be the toughest misers.”

Will commodities make a comeback? ›

We believe a longer-term commodities bull market could resume in 2024 as they act as a hedge against global conflict and inflation.

Why is it risky to invest in a commodity a commodity has little or no value as a long term investment commodity stocks cannot be traded after you purchase them? ›

Because commodities are raw materials — e.g. grain, oil, precious metals — the price of commodities fluctuates constantly owing to changes in supply and demand, which are in turn influenced by climate and weather patterns, workforce issues, global economic trends, and more.

What is the risk of commodity options? ›

Commodity risks occur due to both upward and downward movement in the market. For instance, a farmer might get less returns on their crop yield when the prices decline in the market.

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