30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast in the U.S. 2026 | Statista (2024)

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30-year fixed mortgage rate forecast in the U.S. 2026 | Statista? ›

The 10-year treasury constant maturity

In the long-term, the United States Fed Funds Interest Rate is projected to trend around 4.25 percent in 2025 and 3.25 percent in 2026, according to our econometric models.

One reason being that as the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, the bond market is expected to become less volatile, leading to a slight decline in mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as of Friday is 6.91%. By the final quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae expects that to slide to 6.0%.

The federal funds rate is projected to average 3.1 percent. The projected real interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes—that is, the rate after the effect of expected inflation, as measured by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U), is removed—averages 1.2 percent between 2021 and 2027.

In its April Mortgage Finance Forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage rates will fall from 6.8% in the first quarter of 2024 to 6.4% by the fourth quarter. The industry group expects rates will fall below the 6% threshold in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.

The bank is forecasting three rate cuts in total in late 2024, followed by another three rate cuts in the first half of 2025, which would take the cash rate to 2.85 per cent. Moody's Analytics economist Harry Murphy Cruise expects the RBA won't loosen monetary policy settings until September, at the very earliest.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, even told CNBC that he doesn't think mortgage rates will reach the 3% range again in his lifetime.

Last year, the White House projection for bill rates in 2030 was 2.4%. Such a level would be much higher than has been typical since the turn of the century. Three-month bill rates averaged around 1.5% over that period.

What will the interest rate be in 2028? ›

The Office for Budget Responsibility now expects Bank of England central interest rates to settle at 4pc by the end of its forecast period in 2028-29, rather than fall to 3pc as it had assumed in March.

If those projections remain and the Fed begins to lower its key rate, mortgage rates will presumably follow suit. Sunbury predicts the Fed will cut rates by between 100 to 125 basis points starting in May or June of 2024. “This would bring the policy rate to 4% to 4.25%,” Sunbury explains.

While McBride had initially expected mortgage rates to fall to 5.75 percent by late 2024, the economic reality means they're likely to hover in the range of 6.25 percent to 6.4 percent by the end of the year.

The latest forecast from the National Association of Home Builders puts interest rates at 6.89% to finish 2023 in its October predictions. The organization says that the 30-year fixed rate will be 6.79% in 2024 and 5.72% in 2025.

As of May 31, 2024, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.11%, 20-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.94%, 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.29%, and 10-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.22%. Average rates for other loan types include 6.95% for an FHA 30-year fixed mortgage and 7.14% for a jumbo 30-year fixed mortgage.

A lender may allow borrowers to purchase as little as a fraction of a point up to four points. One mortgage point typically costs 1% of your loan and permanently lowers your interest rate by about 0.25%. If you took out a $150,000 mortgage, for example, one point would cost $1,500 and get you a 0.25% discount.

Savings account rates will likely go down in 2024 when the Federal Reserve cuts its rate. A high-yield savings account is still a good place for savings you may need to access occasionally, like an emergency fund.

The agency expects the interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes to average 1.3 percent over the 2020–2025 period and 2.8 percent over the 2026–2030 period. Beyond 2030, the interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes is projected to rise steadily, reaching 4.8 percent by 2050.